Bring a poncho, Santa

With the Holiday season in full swing, millions of children are thinking of stories of Santa Claus and potential presents they may receive.

But will the weather cause any unexpected delays this year for the delivering of presents for those who celebrate Christmas? And how would Santa Claus or anyone set up a flight plan for delivering presents in this manner?

To help understand this a little better, we turned to a few experts.

How will the weather look on Christmas Eve?

Professor Ryan Fogt, director of the Scalia Laboratory for Atmospheric Analysis at Ohio University, examined the current weather data to provide an early forecast for Christmas Eve.

“After a cold blast this weekend across the Midwest and New England parts of the U.S., temperatures warm above normal heading into Christmas Eve and Christmas,” Fogt said. “Although a bit of a ways out, it looks like there may be some wet weather associated with a low pressure moving across the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys on Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. Santa may want to pack a poncho for nighttime deliveries in these areas.”

These are early weather models, Fogt cautioned, and they could change in the days leading up to Dec. 24. He added that latest weather models show that snow most likely will be confined to Michigan and Wisconsin and parts of upstate New York and northern New England.

“Indeed, if you’re wishing for a white Christmas and to see Santa’s sleigh run on snow, you’ll have to venture to these regions, or Minnesota, North Dakota, or the Rocky and Sierra Mountains out west,” Fogt continued. "There’s a small chance of a white Christmas in northern Ohio - particularly near Lake Erie - but even this seems unlikely this far out.”

He also provided a general look at weather across the world that could affect flying on Dec. 24.

Looking across the Northern Hemisphere, there is a good chance for some strong Arctic storms near the North Pole home base around Christmas Eve (hopefully won’t delay his departure)," Fogt said. "We should see plenty of snow in the European Alps, while much of Asia looks to be dry during the holiday at this forecast time.

As the trip continues around the world, changes in temperatures, as well as changes in daylight hours could also have an impact.

"Longer days and warmer weather will provide much more relief for Santa as he ventures across the Southern Hemisphere, but it will be stormy with some snow as he visits the research bases in Antarctica," Fogt said.

Delivering presents on Dec. 24/25 in Antarctic would be very different than in the U.S., as it will be broad daylight there even around midnight.

“He may have to dodge quite a few thunderstorms across the Amazon region of South America and the Congo of Africa, but Australia looks to be quite pleasant with high pressure building in across that country for Christmas,” Fogt said.

Flight conditions should be very good

As for flying an aircraft and setting up a flight plan on Dec. 24 and 25, flight instructors from the Ohio University Department of Aviation said they expect flight conditions to be positive.

“The reindeer should have no trouble this year,’ said a statement from several Ohio University flight instructors. For anyone making lots of stops on Christmas Eve (or dropping off gifts), they recommend maintaining the same altitude throughout the trip.

“Dropping objects out of an aircraft requires caution and precision, maintaining the same flight conditions with winds aloft,” the flight instructors said.  “The Flying Bobcats Precision Flight Team can give Santa some pointers.”

When asked how they would map out such a flight across the U.S., the instructors provided helpful tips.

“Santa would prioritize the U.S. starting with Maine and working north to south then westward flying with the time zones,” the instructors said. “With minimal weather, a flight plan isn't required and would allow Santa to fly at lower altitudes allowing more precision when dropping presents. Happy Flying!”

What would it be like to work in a climate like the North Pole?

Fogt, who is also a professor in OHIO’s Geography Department, said that living and working in the North Pole would be difficult, especially with such long and dark winters.

“It would take a lot to make it through the long dark winters - months of continual darkness, temperatures well below freezing limiting your ability to be outside, and limited connections to the outside world,” he said. An expert on Antarctica, Fogt said that people who spend the winter months in Antarctica have to be psychologically screened before being approved to stay there over winter.

The job that an individual has in the North Pole would likely be key to living in the cold climate.

“Perhaps making toys and preparing for the holiday rush would help individuals keep their minds sharp and provide plenty of company,” Fogt said. 

The summer months bring plenty of sunlight for people living in cold climate areas such as the North Pole, which would make the living conditions much easier, Fogt said. With less sea ice around the North Pole, as well around Antarctica in recent years though, the conditions are continuing to change.

You can read more about the impact of the disappearance of Antarctic ice here.